Event: IGF 2008
Organization: World Broadcasting Union
Workshop Session 57
What will the web be like in 20 year's time?
Arrangements for the Governance of the web and Internet need to take into account its potential evolution. This workshop at IGF 2008 endeavoured to offer a vision of the future of the web, in 'content', public policy, market economics, and in the 'technical tools' available.
This workshop was organized by The World Broadcasting Union (the collective organisation of eight of the world's broadcasting unions), the European Broadcasting Union, the British Broadcasting Corporation, the Japan Broadcasting Corporation, and the International Telecommunications Union.
The Workshop was chaired by Jonathan Charles, Reporter for BBC World. The participants were:
· Malcolm Johnson, Director ITU Telecom Standardisation Bureau (keynote address)
· Robert Kahn CNRI and Internet pioneer.
· Yoshihiro Fujita, NHK Executive Research Engineer
· Toshio Kuramata NHK Programme Director
· David Wood EBU Head of New Media
Apologies were received from Tomonori Aoyama, Professor, Research Institute for Digital Media and Content, Keio University, Japan.
Malcolm Johnson explained the work done and the role played by the ITU-T in standardisation, and its plans. He also referred to sentiments expressed earlier by ITU Sec Gen, Dr. Toure at the IGF. Dr Toure had stressed the need for the IGF to progress from a discussion forum to a body enabling or taking actions in public policy.
Robert Kahn explained his perception of the most critical elements of web technology for today and their evolution. Vint argued that essentially it was not possible to predict with accuracy the shape of Internet and web in 20 years’ time, because there are too many variables involved.
Yoshiohiro Fujita explained issues associated with the convergence of media, and the use of future hybrid systems which combine broadcasting and Internet. Such hybrid technology may (according to some) represent the largest use of the web in the future. One vision of ‘Web 3.0’ sees it as less a web dominated by software intelligence, and more as a web being used as an alternative vehicle for distributing professionally made content.
Toshio Kuramata outlined the development of content for the web, which has come to include significant community elements, and content creation by individuals. This tendency may be one of the keys to the future of the web.
David Wood argued that it is possible to see major trends and tendencies which can predict to some extent the future of the web. This is because both technology and content are a response to market economics, and market economics follow known patterns, such as cyclical downturns.
The well-attended Workshop discussed this complex situation. It is true that there are a large number of ‘inter-related’ variables affecting the future of the Internet and the web, and thus the system is at least partly ‘chaotic’ in a mathematical sense, and thus unpredictable in its future. It will be susceptible to events and individuals which have not yet happened (‘the signature of chaos’), but equally may be susceptible to macro trends and tendencies which can, possibly, be predicted. There are different views on the major ‘driving forces’ shaping these trends, and whether they are technology evolution standing apart from market economics, or market economics as the major overall determinant of events and technology, influenced in its direction by public policy.
The results of the Workshop were used by Jonathan Charles in moderating the Final Emerging issues plenary Session of the IGF.
The workshop was successful, but the balance of time for presentations and time for interactive discussion could have been improved. Probably fewer or shorter presentations and more interactive discussion would have been better.